Record 8% for Restore as mega-poll puts Reform behind the Tories on seats
Electoral Calculus projection gives Labour a 56-seat majority, but Restore's vote share would translate into a single seat
Restore Britain is on 8% in a new MRP poll by Electoral Calculus conducted for PLMR, a figure the party has called a record.
The poll, published on Friday 16th October, surveyed more than 6,600 people between 25th September and 2nd October, according to Electoral Calculus. The Daily Mail put the sample at 6,699 adults across Great Britain.
It puts Labour on 28%, Reform UK on 21%, the Conservatives on 18%, the Liberal Democrats on 10% and the Greens on 9%.
Seat projection
On those figures, Electoral Calculus projects Labour would win 353 seats, a majority of 56. The Conservatives would be the official opposition with 90 seats, ahead of Reform on 81. The Liberal Democrats would win 70, the SNP 28, Plaid Cymru five and the Greens four.
Despite its 8% share, Restore is projected to win only one seat. The Daily Mail reported that this would be Rupert Lowe's Great Yarmouth constituency.
Electoral Calculus said Reform's vote had fallen from 31% to 21% since its January poll for PLMR, "partly due to the growth in support for Restore Britain".
Reaction
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "Restore Britain would win very few seats, but it is cutting into Reform's vote and leaving it with fewer than 100 seats and even less than the Conservatives." He added that a Conservative and Reform pact "would give them just 171 seats, not even half of Labour's 353", and that "under the first-past-the-post system the side that unites first wins".
Mr Lowe wrote on X at 09:19 BST: "A huge MRP poll just out - Restore Britain on a record 8%. 10%+ in 180 seats. Absolutely astonishing." He added: "We are now reaching serious levels of support, and it is going to keep growing and growing."
At 09:28 BST, the party's account published a list of what it said were "The 180 seats where Restore Britain is polling 10%+", headed by Great Yarmouth, Easington and Blyth and Ashington.
The poll follows a Trajectory Partnership survey this week that put Restore on 6%.
Sources
Image: Michael Garfield, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons